I'm always tempted, when I start one of these screeds, to dot it with references and other sorts of supporting evidence. Then I remember that this is a blog post, and references are not required, plus, nobody cares anyway. NO ONE, EVER, has disagreed with one of my blog posts. I presume that's because I have zero readers, Occam's razor and all.
With that in mind, let's get to today's topic: Why we should outlaw polling, or at the very least, label "poll results" as "fake news." I'm not sure there ever was a time when public polling was reliable, but I can assure you than in recent years, it has gone to hell. Two reasons -
1. It is no longer possible to have a reliable cross-section of respondents, and;
2. People lie.
As to the first point, the highly-regarded Quinnipiac University Poll claims that their "rigorous" methodology includes "large sample sizes, random digit dialing (RDD), (and) timely questions" - they "stay on top of the news." Swell. But let's go back to that random digit dialing. Mentioned in their discussion of how they telephone their respondents is the fact that about one-half of their potential subjects do not even own a landline, and so, of course, they include cell phone numbers in their RDD.
You see the problem, don't you? On one hand, almost everybody - landline or no - has some form of call screening. Virtually nobody, anymore - except maybe baby boomers and lonely Incels from North Dakota - picks up calls from unknown numbers. While Quinnipiac does make several call-backs, it appears that they do not leave voicemails, because the selection has to be random, right? Only it's not.
On the other hand, virtually everyone under the age of 30 has some form of smartphone, and if it's anything like mine, it has the option to screen unknown numbers directly to voicemail. I never even hear it ring. The only people answering unknown callers these days are people who can't wait to answer polls, i.e., second-level self-selection.
As to the second reason, people lie. People lie all the time, about matters great and small. I might be lying right now. So am I lying about lying? Maybe. Do people lie all the time? You bet. The New York Times says people don't lie to pollsters, but the NYT is lying. In today's fascist vs. socialist political climate, lying is de rigueur - you can't even claim your political chops unless you know what lies the other side (and yours) are telling these days. What do you figure makes people willing to answer political polls? The chance to advance their agenda, duh. These days, when you see a poll that does not seem to square with what you know is actually going on in the public square, it's easy to see why. I give you the Midterm Red Wave as a case in point.
Why does all this matter? Because people are sheep. (Lying sheep. I'm almost ashamed to be one.) When they read a poll that contradicts their own beliefs, it takes the edge off of their enthusiasm. It depresses them. It keeps them home on election day. Hillary Clinton is the poster woman for this effect. In case SOMEONE out there disagrees, let me once again point out that she won the popular vote for President by seven million or so - a squeaker for her opponent, driven largely by negative polling in the final days of her campaign. It was the "undecideds" that killed her, and undecided voters make up their mind late in the game.
First thing we do, let's kill all the pollsters. We can get to the lawyers later on.
No comments:
Post a Comment