Trump In The Time Of CoVid-19

I’ve been considering the question that’s clearly before us: Should we stop the extreme measures we’ve adopted to prevent the spread of CoVid-19? Are we causing unnecessary economic damage on top of an inevitable epidemic?

The answer seems to be: it all depends on what’s important to you.

If your well-being is what matters, then we should probably continue on course. While it appears to be true that we cannot reduce the likely number of illnesses, in the long run, what we can do is spread out the infection rate to keep it within our medical community’s ability to respond. This is what they mean when the say “flattening the curve.”

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The benefit from flattening the curve is making medical care available to all the acute cases, as opposed to an outcome similar to Italy’s, where severely ill people are simply being allowed to die.

On the other hand, a strong nation depends on a strong economy. Continuing with the current restrictions on industries and movement is going to cause a recession, and it could be a whopper. According to the New York Times,“A one-year epidemic that took just over one million lives, which is consistent with recent projections based on scenarios from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, would reduce the nation’s G.D.P. in 2020 by $1.8 trillion — 8.4 percent.”

This is no idle matter. There will be extended and widespread unemployment, the service industry and other sectors may be permanently damaged and the recession/depression could last for years. If the outbreak wanes in the summer (the “sucker” phase) only to return with a vengeance in the fall – this is expected – there would be no financial relief left to give. 

Some note that the government can print as much money as it wants, but inflation bats last. Imagine a $100 loaf of bread.

Personally, I’m squarely on the “I’d like to live, thank you” side of things. Unlike that nutcake from Texas, I’m not willing to die for the economy. But I’m realistic, too – these events could shatter my pensions and shutter social security (try saying that three times fast). We could wind up in $100 bread lines. Until we do, I’m washing my hands and staying home.

Spring 2020

There’s an old saw about the Chinese symbols for “crisis” (or danger) are the same as symbols for “opportunity.” (Like many things of little importance, this is hotly debated by people on Google.) In the present crisis, the important thing is to keep the current administration on their back foot and not considering the opportunity.

Because the opportunity is truly horrifying.

The President has tremendous, almost unlimited, emergency powers. He can direct military control over the state actions (see Eisenhower, national guard, desegregation), he can shut down public protest with lethal force (see Nixon, Kent State), he can incarcerate American citizens on the flimsiest of pretexts (see Roosevelt, Japanese interment). 

Speaking strictly for myself, I’m more than happy to stay home and hide out and avoid as much human contact as possible. That’s because 1) I’m a privileged old white guy who doesn’t need to work for a living anymore, and 2) I’m kind of an asshole sometimes who immediately regrets it when I do asshole things, and introversion has the effect of protecting me from myself. Mostly.

By the way, “He’s kind of an asshole, sometimes” is the best student evaluation I ever got. True fact.

Enough about me. Back to the other asshole in the room. If Trump figures out that this crisis is the true opportunity that it seems to be, you can kiss your democracy goodbye. In the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918, Nature batted twice – once in the Winter/Spring and again in the Fall. If this pandemic follows that pattern, the second (and worse) iteration of this illness will conveniently occur right smack in the middle of the 2020 elections. Or, as you might imagine, the “temporarily cancelled” elections.

We don’t need to speculate about what might happen in a few months. Things are playing out now in real time. Fundraisers cancelled, public meetings called off, canvassers turned away, voters refusing to leave the house to vote. Local governments all but on lockdown. 

In the meantime, this administration fumbles its way to making matters worse while hiding the ball on all relevant detail. The CDC refuses to provide data on infections, the White House turns down World Health Organization test kits and refuses to admit what is plainly obvious – all manner of medical supplies, including test kits, are in desperately short supply. The one edict that did come from the Oval – an offhand and irrational limitation on air travel from Europe, excepting mother England (?) – was almost certain to turn airports into frantic petri dishes of returning travelers, and has done just that.

THE SKY IS FALLING! Just kidding. Maybe.

Some take consolation in the fact that the Criminal-In-Chief labelled this pandemic a “hoax,” early on, and many of his True Believers are continuing to party like it’s 1999. That would make me a lot happier if I thought they would merely spread the contagion among themselves, but, unfortunately, that’s not how it works. In the final analysis all they’re doing is making matters worse.

Stay home if you can. Forget about buying guns and toilet paper; buy groceries. Tip, lavishly, the people who are still working because they must. 

Cross your fingers, after you wash your damned hands.