January 2, 2023

   

For the third time, today is the second day of 2023. In an unusual turn of events, not much has happened so far this year. I am going on the wagon today. It is 9:30 am and I have not yet had a drink. I'll keep you posted.

Addendum: I should mention that I am restarting this blog after a 2 3/4 year hiatus brought on by the Trump administration, Covid, and general malaise. It is now 10:22 am and I am still sober. That's the kind of hard-hitting news you can expect to find here.

Trump In The Time Of CoVid-19

I’ve been considering the question that’s clearly before us: Should we stop the extreme measures we’ve adopted to prevent the spread of CoVid-19? Are we causing unnecessary economic damage on top of an inevitable epidemic?

The answer seems to be: it all depends on what’s important to you.

If your well-being is what matters, then we should probably continue on course. While it appears to be true that we cannot reduce the likely number of illnesses, in the long run, what we can do is spread out the infection rate to keep it within our medical community’s ability to respond. This is what they mean when the say “flattening the curve.”

Click here for source

The benefit from flattening the curve is making medical care available to all the acute cases, as opposed to an outcome similar to Italy’s, where severely ill people are simply being allowed to die.

On the other hand, a strong nation depends on a strong economy. Continuing with the current restrictions on industries and movement is going to cause a recession, and it could be a whopper. According to the New York Times,“A one-year epidemic that took just over one million lives, which is consistent with recent projections based on scenarios from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, would reduce the nation’s G.D.P. in 2020 by $1.8 trillion — 8.4 percent.”

This is no idle matter. There will be extended and widespread unemployment, the service industry and other sectors may be permanently damaged and the recession/depression could last for years. If the outbreak wanes in the summer (the “sucker” phase) only to return with a vengeance in the fall – this is expected – there would be no financial relief left to give. 

Some note that the government can print as much money as it wants, but inflation bats last. Imagine a $100 loaf of bread.

Personally, I’m squarely on the “I’d like to live, thank you” side of things. Unlike that nutcake from Texas, I’m not willing to die for the economy. But I’m realistic, too – these events could shatter my pensions and shutter social security (try saying that three times fast). We could wind up in $100 bread lines. Until we do, I’m washing my hands and staying home.

Spring 2020

There’s an old saw about the Chinese symbols for “crisis” (or danger) are the same as symbols for “opportunity.” (Like many things of little importance, this is hotly debated by people on Google.) In the present crisis, the important thing is to keep the current administration on their back foot and not considering the opportunity.

Because the opportunity is truly horrifying.

The President has tremendous, almost unlimited, emergency powers. He can direct military control over the state actions (see Eisenhower, national guard, desegregation), he can shut down public protest with lethal force (see Nixon, Kent State), he can incarcerate American citizens on the flimsiest of pretexts (see Roosevelt, Japanese interment). 

Speaking strictly for myself, I’m more than happy to stay home and hide out and avoid as much human contact as possible. That’s because 1) I’m a privileged old white guy who doesn’t need to work for a living anymore, and 2) I’m kind of an asshole sometimes who immediately regrets it when I do asshole things, and introversion has the effect of protecting me from myself. Mostly.

By the way, “He’s kind of an asshole, sometimes” is the best student evaluation I ever got. True fact.

Enough about me. Back to the other asshole in the room. If Trump figures out that this crisis is the true opportunity that it seems to be, you can kiss your democracy goodbye. In the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918, Nature batted twice – once in the Winter/Spring and again in the Fall. If this pandemic follows that pattern, the second (and worse) iteration of this illness will conveniently occur right smack in the middle of the 2020 elections. Or, as you might imagine, the “temporarily cancelled” elections.

We don’t need to speculate about what might happen in a few months. Things are playing out now in real time. Fundraisers cancelled, public meetings called off, canvassers turned away, voters refusing to leave the house to vote. Local governments all but on lockdown. 

In the meantime, this administration fumbles its way to making matters worse while hiding the ball on all relevant detail. The CDC refuses to provide data on infections, the White House turns down World Health Organization test kits and refuses to admit what is plainly obvious – all manner of medical supplies, including test kits, are in desperately short supply. The one edict that did come from the Oval – an offhand and irrational limitation on air travel from Europe, excepting mother England (?) – was almost certain to turn airports into frantic petri dishes of returning travelers, and has done just that.

THE SKY IS FALLING! Just kidding. Maybe.

Some take consolation in the fact that the Criminal-In-Chief labelled this pandemic a “hoax,” early on, and many of his True Believers are continuing to party like it’s 1999. That would make me a lot happier if I thought they would merely spread the contagion among themselves, but, unfortunately, that’s not how it works. In the final analysis all they’re doing is making matters worse.

Stay home if you can. Forget about buying guns and toilet paper; buy groceries. Tip, lavishly, the people who are still working because they must. 

Cross your fingers, after you wash your damned hands. 

The Fourth Reich

The 1930s and 40s were recent history when I was a school-aged child, and taught in both history and civics classes for the valuable lesson of how a democratic republic (the Weimar Republic) descended into despotism and madness. There was a lot of revisionist stuff back then, too, about how the average German “didn’t know” about the holocaust (not true) and that the nuclear attacks on Japan were necessary to save American soldiers’ lives (still hotly debated). The inarguable fact is that the Nazi machine and its fascist leadership were evil, top to bottom, start to finish.

There are increasingly few of us who remember those lessons in our own time. Those of us who do point to events yesterday, and today, and almost certainly tomorrow, and say “this is how it happens.”

This is how it happens.

The GOP in Congress has given Trump free rein. They mistakenly believe that when push comes to shove, he is under their control. This was the same mistake made by Germany’s conservatives towards Hitler. Republicans have now missed their last best chance to be rid of this president, and he holds the whip hand. There are only two sorts of people in this Congress: Trump loyalists, who enjoy uncertain levels of job security, and the nay-sayers, who have no hope of any influential support.

Some people – notably Jim Wright, whom I much admire – feel that the onus is now on the public, and that elections still matter. He’s correct, the one thing likely to save democracy is a bloodbath at the polls. It has happened before, as when Lincoln was elected. Under this regime the Federal Elections Commission doesn’t even have a quorum, while the incumbent literally hands out cash to voters at his rallies. You should go ahead and vote while you still can, but be clear-eyed about it.

Fresh from his victory over the rule of law, Trump will act with even greater impunity. We’ve already seen a handful of deaths, primarily children, in his interment camps. As ICE and other enforcement services are further infiltrated by alt-Right fanatics and white supremacists, resistance will be increasingly punished. People taken from their homes at the point of a gun will begin to die, “resisting,” or starving, or under other unexplained circumstances. ICE will claim the right to destroy records of abuse and death. The roundup will eventually extend to American citizens who protest, or complain, or speak out. 

Much of what went on in the 1930s in Germany has been happening here for a while. All the angry rhetoric, the violation or discounting of long-standing treaties, the us-vs-them approach to foreign relations with presumptive allies, currying favor with despots – that’s all straight out of Hitler’s playbook. 

At home, look for continued support for the silencing of “fake news,” and the ascending popularity of “patriotic” media. The demeaning and deconstruction of public education will go on unchecked. The man in the White House has already put “entitlements” (that is, the benefits we paid for ourselves) in his crosshairs, and all manner of Federal support is being strangled to extinction.

Look for the ongoing criminalization of seemingly useful activities, particularly of the whistleblowing/investigating sort.

Political rallies. One day, you or your children will be required to attend a rally. That’s a sure way to know that fascism has arrived.

This administration recently lit a match on war with Iran, and the fuse got stomped out just in time. How often do you think we’ll get lucky like that? Trump is dying to play with his military toys, and military command is increasingly unable to contain him. The first round of “My Generals” are gone, many more are packing their bags. 

It’s easy to predict a war. That’s been a go-to move in the GOP offense for almost 50 years. Trump needs a war the same way every Republican president since Nixon has needed a war, as an excuse to remain in power and to attack “unpatriotic” enemies at home.

The wild card in all this is global climate change. Trump is incapable of cathedral thinking, and long-term consequences are beyond his ken. He gives no consideration to the likelihood that his policies are accelerating climate shift. Perhaps we’ll swap one catastrophe for another; extreme weather events are likely to burden the military with a whole host of unanticipated exigencies.

What to do now? Well, if you want a long-term prognosis, both Trump and the weather will have their worst effect on the least-prepared. I’d focus on disaster preparation, for yourself and the neighbors who need your help. Readying for the fires and floods and invading federal agents will occupy your time. Swallow  your disappointment and soldier on. Prepare for the dystopia. And vote.

Tom Steyer Is Wrong

One of the headlines on today’s NY Times Opinion page is “Tom Steyer’s Top Priority Isn’t Climate Change.” I wrote about the topic of climate change a while ago and made the mistake of trying to get it published while we were busily going to war with Iran. In lieu of that war, I offer it here for your consideration.

Our striking ability to nurse a grudge is a uniquely human quality. Thoughts of revenge reflect our deep capacity to recall old wounds, and the urge for payback is as old as human consciousness.

The code of Hammurabi (circa 1754 BC) provides the admonition “an eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth.” This “eye for an eye” instruction was a proposal that justice be proportionate – don’t respond with greater injury than the damage done to you. Jesus cited Hammurabi in his Sermon on the Mount, suggesting instead that we turn the other cheek.  God went Jesus one better and said that revenge was his, alone.

Freud postulated competing instincts: Eros, the will to live, and Thanatos, our more aggressive nature. Freud argued that Thanatos is a subconscious will to die. 

These perspectives have a connection. With growing nationalism and rising hostilities, Thanatos seems now ascendant. The current conflict with Iran is a classic example of how acts of requital escalate. If human self-destruction is the inevitable last act, payback will play a central role in the denouement.

The urge for revenge can actually alter cognitive processes. As Michael Corleone noted in Godfather III: “Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement.” Violence breeds violence. We see that trauma and abuse run in families. Trauma as psychological damage plays a leading role in the drama of reprisal. Trauma is the engine that powers payback thinking.

Despots know to take advantage of these dynamics, to scapegoat and blame the “other” for all the public’s ills. Trauma increases susceptibility to such manipulations.

The payback game is an endless seesaw of ramping up old disputes and tit-for-tat, until finally the pendulum swings. In our democracy, pendulum swings happen mostly without bloodshed. If the American Republic is no longer viable, the usual constraints are gone. Thanatos dominates, and the revolution will be anything but peaceful.

In the fantasy life of MAGA folks, it will be a cleansing tide that washes away all that is not right and White and Christian. Trump crusaders are devoted to this idea. Trump has openly threatened civil war, should he be removed from office.

Are we headed towards the suffocated last gasp of Reagan’s “shining city upon a hill,” exploitation by our enemies, despotism and capitulation to tyranny? Perhaps. A rational option is to reject the relentless squabbles and internecine combat that characterizes our current social order.

We need a common enemy.

We need a cause to fight on which we can more or less agree. But where do you find an enemy that is not defined by religion, nationality, gender, race, age? Look around. See how the tornados are more violent, seas are sweeping higher on the shore, hurricanes and cyclones vastly more powerful, rivers raging over their banks – or the forests dying, waterfalls that no longer run, permafrost that isn’t? Our common enemy is pollution, environmental destruction and global climate change.

The GOP were not always opponents of environmental stewardship. Remember Teddy Roosevelt? His party supported clean water and clean air legislation. Politicians are soon going to be forced to care, if they represent any coastal state, any state that depends on agriculture or herd animals, or the continued survival of, well, practically anything.

Donald Trump has zero interest in the environment, and an active distain for regulation. He has no capacity for cathedral thinking. He will never be persuaded that averting the coming calamity is any kind of useful goal, because it has no personal transactional benefit to him.

The public response to Greta Thunberg has shown us that a surprisingly large voting bloc – young people – can be motivated by a pro-environment activist. They are signing up to vote in surprising numbers. If a candidate would rise up and declare saving the planet as job one, the man in the Oval might be defeated from the flank he failed to protect.

In the “us versus them” playbook, nobody wins. With an “us versus environmental destruction” strategy, everybody wins. Donald Trump is not a “win-win” kind of person. His narcissism and pettiness reveal his own traumas. Trump is a payback kind of guy – and everyone is the worse for it.

Through global climate action, the U.S. could retake the lead in foreign policy. This position could be leveraged to justify practically any agenda: on immigration, economic policy, trade. Real action on the environment could be a staggering windfall for America, particularly in light of the alternatives.

“Climate apartheid” is one proposed outcome. According to this scenario, human rights will not survive the coming global disaster, with wealthy people buying protections from the worst effects while vast numbers of poor succumb to heat, malnutrition, dehydration and disease.

Perhaps, or not. People who count on mass extinction as a survival strategy are ignoring the nature of payback.

The Dementia Diaries

I forget. I forget little things mostly, but some little things can become big things, like forgetting where you put your passport. I forget episodes, I forget words. This helps me build my ability to describe, for example:

Me: That liquor. The Italian one that’s bright red and tastes like gasoline.

Her: Campari?

Me: That’s it!

I’m an old man now and forgetting is the “getting” part of old. I ruminate about getting old. I look at our fat-assed President climbing down the stairs to Air Force One and how he’s watching his tiny feet to make sure he doesn’t slip and it pains me to recognize that I do that too, going down stairs. I never forget to be careful on the stairs.

I lost my passport today, the passport I need to go to Canada and cruise to Alaska in 4 days. After tearing apart most of two rooms in our house frantically searching for the document, I called Sandie. (My phone says, “Calling Shmandie on cell.” I get a kick out of that.)

Me: Do you have my passport?

Her: No.

Me: Are you sure?

Her: I just moved mine from one place to another so I’d know where it is for the trip. I don’t have your passport.

Me: Neither do I.

Her: Did you look in your backpack?

Me: 

Her:

Me: Do you have my backpack?

Her: It’s on that leather table next to the couch.

Later –

Me: I found my passport. It was in my backpack.

Her: (Sigh). Good.

It’s not clear that they’ll let me into Canada anyway, but that’s another story for a different day.

Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics

From time to time I’m reminded that I did spend (waste?) several years going to graduate school, including – in my view – a few hideous hours learning statistics. It’s not that I hate math; I just never was much good at it. My undergrad minimum requirement was algebra, and I completed the minimum. Solve for x.

Nevertheless, the stats training still comes in useful, from time to time. While wandering through my social media today, I stumbled across a report from CBS, ranking states by their rates of obesity. You can view the slideshow HERE. I studied it with passing interest, noting for example that my home state of Colorado is the least obese (22.6%). Washington, DC was included right behind Colorado at #50, and so on, down to #1 West Virginia, tipping the scales at 38.1%.

While I was looking at this report I noticed a trend which led me to ask the following question: What is the relationship between this data and the percentage of people who voted for The Donald? 

Why?

It’s not important why. Science is about questions, not excuses.

You can find the percentage of people voting for Trump on Wikipedia, HERE. 

The relationship of obesity rates to Trump voters – or any such relationship – can be expressed as a correlation, which basically reveals how change in the X-axis corresponds to a change in the Y-axis. As any scientist will tell you (and no media editor understands) correlations are not necessarily causal. In other words, X does not cause Y, or vice-versa.

With that in mind, let’s look at the data. Before we do, I need to confess to a small fudge: The CBS data allowed for ties. For example, Tennessee and Nebraska were tied at #14 (32.8% overweight). I disallowed ties, and gave the first state named by CBS the better ranking, that is, Tennessee #15, Nebraska #14. I don’t think it matters that much, but if you’re so anal that you must have it exactly right go pull the data and run it yourself, smart ass.

The measure of fit of a correlation (R) is between 0 and 1, where 0 is no relationship and 1 means that every change in X results in an exactly equal change in Y. In my experience, there’s a kind of background correlation where everything is related to everything else by about R=.20. Above a .50 correlation usually indicates some relationship. A .70 or above is generally strong.

The relationship of state rankings of obesity x percent of population voting for Trump?

R=.73 (0.728687783, to be picky about it).

Ta-Dah! That’s pretty good. I’ve seen worse results in some of my student’s Masters’ theses. Here’s what it looks like in a graph.

Okay, so now you want to know what it all means. Well, it means Americans are fat and Trump is allegedly President. I’m sure you could spend a few thousand words sorting through these results to draw some conclusions, and you might even make an interesting research paper out of it, but I’ll leave that to you. I offer the data up merely to demonstrate that I have a lot of time on my hands.

If you seriously want to review the raw data, email me and I’ll be happy to send it along.